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Unrealistic Forecast Errors #114

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DLWoodruff opened this issue Oct 15, 2019 · 0 comments
Open

Unrealistic Forecast Errors #114

DLWoodruff opened this issue Oct 15, 2019 · 0 comments
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@DLWoodruff
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DLWoodruff commented Oct 15, 2019

There are number of hours in RTS_Data/timeseries_data_files/WIND/DAY_AHEAD_WIND.csv
that have unreasonably high forecast errors. The worst two hours are

Date, Time, Forecast, Observed total (from REAL_TIME_wind.csv)
2020-02-27, 19:00:00, 0.1, 1918.03333333333

2020-03-05, 19:00:00, 0.1, 1918.03333333333

The fact that it is for the same hour of the day with the same unrealistic values but on different days makes me suspect a bug in the software that created the files. Note that these forecasts
differ from neighboring hours by more than two orders of magnitude (and the neighboring
hours are also quite bad).

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